General

The Bank of England (BoE) upgraded its outlook for GDP, seeing a surge this year driven by a successful vaccination roll-out and a fully reopened UK economy in June combined with supportive fiscal and monetary policies and unleashed household savings. Overall, the revised UK forecast implies a faster GDP expansion this year, followed by slower growth next year. As ever, underneath the rosy headline outlook, the environment will remain precarious for some.

UK goods trading with the EU fell substantially in January. UK goods exports and imports to the EU plunged by £5.6bn (41%) and £6.6bn (29%) respectively, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), in the most precipitous monthly decline since records began in 1997.

More than 20 million people around the UK have now received a first dose of the Covid-19 vaccine, marking the fourth-highest vaccination rate worldwide. The UK government aims to extend coverage to everyone over 50 or at risk by 15 April and all adults by 31 July.

Chancellor Rishi Sunak announced the dissolution of the UK government’s highly popular Bounce Back Loan Scheme (BBLS) in his Budget this lunchtime, which included £65 billion in new fiscal measures to support the UK’s economic recovery from the pandemic.

An hour before New Year’s Day, at 11pm on 31 December 2020, the UK completed its formal departure from the European Union (EU). It was an unceremonious conclusion to the four-and-a-half-year saga since the referendum.

The latest UK national lockdown represents a new kind of challenge for the Government: to articulate to Covid-weary households and businesses that things will soon get better, but first they will worsen. An ambitious national vaccination campaign is underway, raising hopes that the end of the pandemic is in sight. However, at the same time we are in the grip of the virus with rates of infection soaring, exacerbated by a virulent new strain.