General

The emergence of Omicron, the latest Covid-19 variant, threatens the positive autumn momentum building in the UK labour market. Early indicators suggest only a tiny proportion of the 1.14 million furloughed workers were made redundant after the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS) expired. November’s data, published in mid-December, is also expected to show that positive employment trends continued. If true, this confounds fears of rising unemployment at the end of the CJRS. However, the latest pandemic curveball may blunt the positive momentum.

Escalating inflation in the UK economy reached a decade-long high in October, as higher energy prices, supply chain disruptions, labour shortages, wage and food price inflation all blunted the economic recovery.

The Bank of England (BoE) upgraded its outlook for GDP, seeing a surge this year driven by a successful vaccination roll-out and a fully reopened UK economy in June combined with supportive fiscal and monetary policies and unleashed household savings. Overall, the revised UK forecast implies a faster GDP expansion this year, followed by slower growth next year. As ever, underneath the rosy headline outlook, the environment will remain precarious for some.

UK goods trading with the EU fell substantially in January. UK goods exports and imports to the EU plunged by £5.6bn (41%) and £6.6bn (29%) respectively, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), in the most precipitous monthly decline since records began in 1997.

More than 20 million people around the UK have now received a first dose of the Covid-19 vaccine, marking the fourth-highest vaccination rate worldwide. The UK government aims to extend coverage to everyone over 50 or at risk by 15 April and all adults by 31 July.

Chancellor Rishi Sunak announced the dissolution of the UK government’s highly popular Bounce Back Loan Scheme (BBLS) in his Budget this lunchtime, which included £65 billion in new fiscal measures to support the UK’s economic recovery from the pandemic.